The beda:photo Christmas tree is now fully decked out in all its glory but, as usual, the missing ingredient is a suitably festive view from the window. Will we see another white Christmas in the South East? Not if the global warmers are to be believed, as our winters are said to be becoming milder and wetter every year. In this part of the world snow (if it comes at all) usually descends in the first few weeks of the new year, and we have had some brutal snowfalls around here in recent years, with roads cut off and a six day power cut 3 years ago. Not much fun if you live out in the sticks.

Snowboarding

Mustn’t grumble though, and it was a rare treat to watch people snowboarding down the country lanes around here! Looking back over the last few decades it seems to us to be more a case of regular cycles of warm and cold spells, with hot, dry summers being followed by milder winters and cool, wetter summers being followed by harsh winters.

In Essex we have had two blistering hot, drought ridden summers followed by very mild winters in 2019 and 2020, but the summer of 2021 was something of a damp squib by comparison and not exceptionally warm, so the unofficial beda long range weather forecast is predicting a cold winter, but we will have to consult the tea leaves to be absolutely sure.

This is all very interesting, but what is the relevance? Well, imagine waking up to the scene above in 10 years time, when gas, oil and coal fired heating is a thing of the past, only to find that the electricity (your only remaining source of heat, light, cooking and power to work with) is out for six days. And don’t even think about getting into your shiny new electric car to get some emergency supplies!

A storm in the North

At the time of writing this, a storm in the North of England has left thousands of households without power for 8 days. One can only hope that they haven’t been naive enough to put all their eggs in the electricity basket and at least have some alternative form of heating.

Goodbye oil and gas?

For those of you who may be unaware, it is official government policy to begin phasing out oil and gas boilers in 2025, just three years from now, in order to reduce fossil fuel emissions. The idea is to replace fossil fuels with cleaner electricity, which is great as long as you don’t think too hard about exactly how that electricity will be generated.

Currently, 42% of our electricity is generated by gas (yes, a fossil fuel) and coal (yes, another fossil fuel) with 21% being generated by nuclear power and 24% by so-called renewable sources, like wind and solar power. The rest is apparently generated by a mixture of ‘other’ fossil fuels (3.5%) and imports from France. Add to this the fact that all but one of our nuclear power stations are scheduled to be retired by 2035 and it becomes obvious that someone has got his sums wrong.

Disaster round the corner?

There are currently about 28 million households in Britain and if one assumes that most of them run at least one petrol or diesel car and (let’s say) half have oil or gas fired heating, you don’t even have to do the calculations to see that there will be a truly humungous increase in electricity consumption if and when all alternatives are phased out. Looking at how shaky the electricity distribution infrastructure is in rural areas at the moment it’s hard to see anything but disaster round the corner.

Add to all this, of course that so-called renewable energy sources are scheduled to increase to 30% of national output at most. The rest will have to come from a whole new generation of much larger or more numerous nuclear reactors, with all that that entails.

And speaking of alternative energy, human nature being what it is, farmers are now queuing up for planning permission for solar ‘farms’ as an easier and more lucrative alternative to growing food for the nation. In a country that only produces 52% of its own food at the moment, this can only be described as madness.

A much better solution would be mandatory solar panels on the roof of every new house built, no infrastructure, no pylons, no problem. Given the huge housebuilding programme the government has undertaken this could provide a large contribution to the national grid.

The elephant in the room

The problem, as always of course, is the proverbial elephant in the room, the size of the human population, which no one will talk about. Instead, we are required to accept that the UK population can keep on growing continuously without ever reaching the point of unsustainability.

Overpopulation is a very obvious global problem which most people are at least vaguely aware of, but it is quite astonishing that nothing is ever offered in the way of solutions or even discussion from the never ending international summits or from national governments. On the contrary, most western nations seem trapped in the belief that ever growing national economies and the rising populations and massive consumption increases they require can one day be made sustainable.

If the UK currently only produces 52% of its own food that means we are simply exporting our over population problem to other countries, mostly Eastern Europe, South America and the far East. As the new trade deals with New Zealand and Australia begin to take effect the emphasis will shift, but the principle remains the same. At the moment these countries may be content to subsidise our irresponsible policies, but that won’t last forever once they decide they need the spare food for their own expanding populations.

It seems stunningly obvious that if the ship has too many passengers and is in constant danger of sinking, simply moving them around in a vain attempt to stabilise it will eventually end in disaster for all. Allowing even more to climb on board is complete madness.